• Question: Is accurate long-range weather forecasting possible?

    Asked by k9markred to Daniela, Hannah, Ian, Jono, Mark on 16 Jun 2013.
    • Photo: Ian Wilson

      Ian Wilson answered on 16 Jun 2013:

      Hi k9markred,

      I think it is, to a certain degree (though that may just be my opinion). Meteorologists (Weather Scientists!) have been studying weather for a long time and collecting data on it. They have data on storms, warm fronts, cold fronts, temperatures – you name it, they’ve got it!

      Over the years, mathematicians have been able to use this data to write equations that they use to predict how the weather will turn out. So, let’s say there’s a hurricane out at sea and they want to know whether it will reach land. They can take wind speeds, temperatures, pressures etc and bung them into a set of equations, which will predict the path the hurricane will take.

      But, obviously, the weather is quite unpredictable to us at the moment! The equations don’t always help make accurate predictions, as you know. I expect that, as further studies are carried out, meteorologists will learn more about how each part of the weather affects the others. The more they learn, the more they can tweak the equations to make them more accurate.

      The interesting twist is, as the Earth’s climates change due to global warming, so too will the weather. The meteorologists are going to be busy for a long time, tweaking their equations to try and keep up with the weather as it changes! But I think it’s possible 🙂

      Hope that helps,

      Ian

    • Photo: Jono Bone

      Jono Bone answered on 16 Jun 2013:

      Hi k9markred,

      That is a great question. I was recently reading about this actually. Long range weather forecasts are very unreliable because our weather system is very chaotic. By chaotic I mean that very small random fluctuations in conditions can build up into large weather effects over time.
      A weather forecast is based on a ‘weather model’ that is run on a very large, incredibly fast computer system. This model is a mathematical description of the weather system and can be used to run simulations to see what the weather might be like in the future. The further into the future you are trying to predict the more these chaotic factors are able to build up and cause big changes in the weather.
      To partly account for the chaos in the weather system these simulations are run many times but are still rarely accurate far into the future.

      I came across this video it’s really good….
      http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/ClimateChanging/ClimateScienceInfoZone/ExploringEarthsclimate/1point2/1point2point1.aspx

    • Photo: Mark Hodson

      Mark Hodson answered on 16 Jun 2013:

      Hello k9markred,

      I reckon the answer is probably not. As Ian and Jono have said it is all very unpredictable. I used to run a field course on Tenerife with some meteorologists – scientists who study weather and climate – and they always made the distinction between weather and climate.

      Weather is what happens day to day and it’s hard to predict. I’ve always been told that the most accurate prediction is that tomorrow will be much the same as today.

      Climate is the result of weather and we can predict with a great deal of confidence that the climate is changing and that in some parts of the world it will get hotter and in some places colder.

      Scientists also predict that as the climate changes “extreme” weather like droughts and floods will become more frequent. So floods that you might expect to happen once in 100 years will happen every 10 years. A scary thought!

    • Photo: Hannah Brotherton

      Hannah Brotherton answered on 18 Jun 2013:

      Hi k9markred,
      Short-range forecast is a weather forecast of up to 48 hours. Long-range forecasts are for anything more than seven days in advance but there are no limits. So naturally people think short range are more accurate. Why? The weather is chaotic and unpredictable. Increased global warming is leading to more unpredicted weather. Because of us humans, we are creating a lot of the problem, by cutting down trees we are increasing carbon dioxide which increases water levels. This causes more storms and unpredictable weather to occur. So for now, long-range weather forecasting is OK, but in years to come, I don’t think we will be able to predict the weather in the next few days, all because of us cutting down trees, driving cars which has lead to global warming 🙁

      But here is a strange and cool fact….the more worse global warming gets and unpredictable the weather, the more likely birds will ‘cheat’ on their bird partners. Birds will try and have as many babies as they can. This is to make sure some of their babies are able to survive the extreme changes in weather, making sure their species survive. So, if the weather gets worse, we will start seeing baby birds everywhere awwwww.

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